Pakistan’s energy transition is being significantly underestimated due to the exclusion of distributed solar installations from official data, leading to a continued perceived reliance on fossil fuels, according to new research from Islamabad-based think tank Renewables First.
In its policy paper, Electrons In, Hydrocarbons Out: Pakistan’s Quest for Economic and Resource Efficiency, the organization found that Pakistan could avoid up to $120 billion in future fuel imports over the lifetime of the 48 GW of solar modules imported as of June 2025.
The study’s co-author, Nabiya Imran, said that with total solar module imports now reaching 51.5 GW, the potential savings could rise to approximately $180 billion in avoided fossil fuel imports. These solar assets are also expected to generate around 1,730 TWh of electricity over their operational lifetimes.
The report highlights that while fossil fuels continue to dominate Pakistan’s energy mix, they come with significant economic and structural drawbacks, including heavy reliance on imports, exposure to foreign exchange volatility, and vulnerability to global price fluctuations. It also points to inefficiencies within the fossil fuel system, estimating that around 60% of primary energy is lost during conversion, transportation, and end use.
In contrast, the study emphasizes the advantages of distributed solar, noting its resilience and long-term efficiency. When paired with electrified end uses, distributed solar systems can deliver energy services more effectively over extended periods.
A key issue identified in the report is the gap in data collection. Current official statistics primarily capture grid-connected electricity and utility-scale projects, while largely overlooking distributed solar installations across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.
According to official figures, Pakistan had installed 6.8 GW of net-metered solar capacity as of September 2025, with utility-scale solar accounting for around 780 MW. However, analysis by Renewables First estimates that total solar capacity had already reached 32 GW by June 2025, suggesting that distributed solar alone accounted for more than 24 GW of installed capacity.
This discrepancy underscores the growing importance of distributed solar in Pakistan’s energy landscape—and the need for more comprehensive measurement to accurately reflect the country’s transition progress.
